Henry Dampier

On the outer right side of history

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November 21, 2014 by henrydampier 1 Comment

You laughed, but the Amero is back!

Let’s go back to 2007, when the establishment took some time out of the presidential campaign season to collectively chortle at warnings about efforts behind the scenes to break down the border between Mexico and the United States:

SINCE HE BEGAN his presidential campaign, Republican candidate Mitt Romney has held more than 125 “Ask Mitt Anything” town hall forums, and the people who have shown up for them have done their best to make the events live up to their name. There have been questions about medical marijuana, about abolishing the income tax, about Romney’s Mormonism and his potential vice president.

Of course, certain topics come up more than others. One is healthcare. Another is Iraq. A third is the North American Union.

The North American Union is a supranational organization, modeled on the European Union, that will soon fuse Canada, the United States, and Mexico into a single economic and political unit. The details are still being worked out by the countries’ leaders, but the NAU’s central governing body will have the power to nullify the laws of its member states. Goods and people will flow among the three countries unimpeded, aided by a network of continent-girdling superhighways. The US and Canadian dollars, along with the peso, will be phased out and replaced by a common North American currency called the amero.

If you haven’t heard about the NAU, that may be because its plotters have succeeded in keeping it secret. Or, more likely, because there is no such thing. Government officials say a continental union is out of the question, and economists and political analysts overwhelmingly agree that there will not be a North American Union in our lifetimes. But belief in the NAU – that the plans are very real, and that the nation is poised to lose its independence – has been spreading from its origins in the conservative fringe, coloring political press conferences and candidate question-and-answer sessions, and reaching a kind of critical mass on the campaign trail. Republican presidential candidate and Texas congressman Ron Paul has made the North American Union one of his central issues.

As fears of the mythical NAU grow, they appear to be subtly shaping more mainstream debates about immigration and trade. Paul’s fellow Republican congressman Virgil Goode introduced a congressional resolution early this year to block the creation of the NAU and the “NAFTA Superhighway System.” Similar resolutions have been introduced in several state legislatures – in Montana’s case, the resolution passed nearly unanimously. And back in July, the US House of Representatives easily approved a measure that would cut off federal funds for an existing trade group set up by the three countries.

The NAU may be the quintessential conspiracy theory for our time, according to scholars studying what the historian Richard Hofstadter famously called the “paranoid style” in American politics. The theory elegantly weaves old fears and new realities into one coherent and all-encompassing plan, and gives a glimpse of where, politically, many Americans are right now: alarmed over immigration, worried about globalization, and – on both sides of the partisan divide – suspicious of the Bush administration’s expansive understanding of executive power.

Is this as funny now as it was then, considering the president’s executive action to declare amnesty for many immigrants from Mexico and Central America?

What we have to consider is the triumph of marketing the union, of being patient about the timetable, and about figuring out a legal construct that met the objectives of the conspirators without raising too many hackles in the general public. Something as dramatic as a North American union would not have flown, executive order or no. Legalizing existing migrants and framing it in humanitarian terms was much more sensible, seemed like a more natural transition, and was less of a dramatic change.

Collapsing the border informally has proven more feasible than doing so formally. The concerns of the rubes get swept away, and there isn’t that much daylight between one president and another — it’s more about the team of bureaucrats behind both of them.

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Filed Under: Economics Tagged With: North American Union

November 20, 2014 by henrydampier 13 Comments

Globalization and War

One of the chief supporting arguments of globalization is that, in an era in which war between great powers is no longer conceivable, free trade between all countries is now desirable, in as great a quantity as is possible, because trade is a positive sum game that generates gains for everyone.

Within its confines, this logical argument isn’t refutable. But when the sub-component facts change, so does the validity of the overall argument. If war between great powers actually is conceivable, even likely and ongoing in a covert manner, then open trade between possible enemies is a great danger: you could simply be feeding in to the economic development of your own enemy, selling him the guns and bullets with which he will use to shoot you tomorrow.

In such an environment, trade is still absolutely necessary, just as it has been necessary since the dawn of civilization. However, promiscuous trade becomes much dumber than it was before, and maintaining some measure of autarky as a fail-safe for times of war begins to make more logical sense.

In effect, the United States has accepted as logically and permanently true that war between great powers is over thanks to the theory of mutually assured destruction. It considers the record since 1945 as proof of this theory, and especially the record since the early 1990s as further ratification of its solidity as a guide to action.

Most of the arguments around free trade in the United States are of a torpid quality, because they either rest on impossible assumptions (a war-free world for the foreseeable future) or logically invalid propositions (like arguments against the positive-sum nature of trade). In modern America, as with everywhere else, there’s a tendency towards going after lazy solutions that can be simplified for the TV audience. Why international diplomacy has always been so complicated is because of these complex needs to balance the goods of trade with the risks of war.

In a magically perfect free-trade world, there is no reason to worry about the balance of trade. In a world in which war is always a risk to be calculated, then the balance of trade and what goods are traded suddenly takes enormous importance. For example, Japan’s dearth of oil supplies once the US began to cut its trade routes shortly before WWII was critical enough to encourage the former country to ambush Pearl Harbor. The lack of that particular good, and the diplomatic incapacity for Japan to secure adequate substitutes, changed the course of history. Perhaps if they had known about the existence of the Daqing field, not discovered until the late 1950s, they would not have needed to bother with the US. But they didn’t know, and they didn’t have a network of strong foreign allies to fall back on.

In a world of theory, you could ask why Japan didn’t simply trade for oil. The answer is that they tried, but Yankees embargoed all their boats, and most of their previous existing trade relationships were with Americans.

As we enter into an era of renewed conflict between great powers, the stuffy pre-Globalization concerns about free trade must begin to loom larger. One can argue for world peace as much as one likes, but maintaining it isn’t possible given the many conflicts that divide the human species.

The computerized fiat money system which encourages de-industrialization in the West becomes much weaker when it must go up against competition through gold-backed monetary systems. An empire can force the use of its coin upon its subjects. A shadow of a former empire is not capable of such a thing.

Whereas for generations now, the American financial elite has reaped profits by dismantling domestic industry, collecting an exorbitant privilege of being the first-users of the inflationary global money supply, that exorbitant privilege is likely to reverse into a horrible disadvantage, as those with the actual physical stock of productive capital equipment will have a trump hand to play against those who only own paper claims to symbolic capital.

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Filed Under: War

November 19, 2014 by henrydampier 6 Comments

Britannus Americanus: A Letter from a Jacobite

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Filed Under: Politics

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